Adaptation in motion: Temporary migration under heat stress

The impact of climate-induced temporary migration remains largely unexplored, yet this flow is widespread in developing countries. The distinction from permanent migration is critical as temporary migrants are often underestimated and unaccounted for in local administrative planning. This generates a distinct externality through the systematic underprovisioning of public services.

To investigate spatial spillovers under widespread climate change, this study explores two key migration channels: temperature-induced reduction in productivity and under-provision of public services. Using a large-scale panel survey in India, this study finds that a one-degree rise in mean daily temperature increases temporary out-migration rates by 2%-6%. 

This study also explores and quantifies the change in welfare costs of restricting each migration channel given different scenarios. Under the IPCC SSP 5-8.5 climate change scenario, restricting temporary migration generates welfare costs larger than restricting permanent migration, demonstrating that temporary flows are a critical but overlooked adaptation mechanism. Remedying the under-provisioning of services for temporary migrants delivers more than thrice the welfare gains than from cost-equivalent, place-based adaptation measures. These results can help inform the allocation of climate adaptation funds in developing countries.

About Moumita Das

Moumita is a PhD Candidate in Economics who works at the intersection of labour, climate change, and environmental impacts in developing countries. Her research spans climate-induced labour migration, household adaptation in the face of heat shocks, and the environmental spillovers of trade policy. She has worked with the Asian Development Bank's Climate Adaptation Team on climate resilience in food systems in Southeast Asia. This June, Moumita is graduating with her doctorate and will be pursuing applied research in climate adaptation, labour mobility, and development policy.