Decarbonizing Heat: The Impact of Heat Pumps and a Time-of-Use Heat Pump Tariff on Energy Demand

Heat pumps are central to decarbonizing heat and will play a major role in the more than doubling of electricity demand expected by 2050, raising important questions about household costs, grid impacts, and peak demand. Yet despite their promise, there has been remarkably little large-scale empirical evidence on how heat pumps affect real-world energy use, or on whether pricing can help optimize demand.

In this webinar, Louise Bernard and Andrew Schein present their research (see here at NBER) offering the first large-scale causal evaluation of the impact of heat pumps on electricity demand and the role of time-of-use pricing in shaping consumption. Using detailed household adoption and consumption data from the Octopus Energy Group in the UK, the analysis estimates the effects of air-source heat pump installations and of a tariff designed specifically for heat pump users.

About Louise Bernard

Louise leads CNZ’s research on heat pumps and uses large-scale experiments and quasi-experimental methods to study energy transitions. She holds a PhD in Urban Economics from LSE and has worked with the World Bank, the Grantham Research Institute, and the University of Oxford.

About Andrew Schein

Andrew Schein is Director of CNZ’s Trials and Analysis team, leading field trials and quasi-experimental research with partners across Octopus Energy Group and externally, including Nesta, NESO, and OVO, with a focus on demand flexibility, decentralized energy, and technology adoption. Previously, Andrew held senior roles at the Behavioural Insights Team and Nesta, and was an early employee at Bulb. He has also worked in environmental campaigning at Feedback, including helping launch Toast, a social enterprise turning surplus bread into beer.